Medić vs.
Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night heads to Belgrade for a historic welterweight main event between Serbian knockout artist Uroš “The Doctor” Medić and experienced American contender Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez.
The matchup brings together two ranked fighters on three-fight winning streaks, but they have built their momentum in very different ways. Medić has finished Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov and Geoff Neal inside the opening round. Rodriguez has relied on experience, pressure and sustained striking to defeat Alex Morono, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Kevin Holland.
For Medić, this is an opportunity to produce a career-defining performance in his home country. For Rodriguez, it is a chance to spoil the celebration and prove that his high-output style can neutralize one of the division’s most dangerous early finishers.
Uroš Medić
13–3 • Serbia
Daniel Rodriguez
20–5 • USA
UFC Fight Night Event Information
The official UFC event page lists the preliminary card for 7:00 a.m. PT and the main card for 10:00 a.m. PT. The event takes place at Belgrade Arena and marks the UFC’s first visit to Serbia.
Time conversions
3:00 p.m.Main card
6:00 p.m.
4:00 p.m.Main card
7:00 p.m.
7:00 p.m.Main card
10:00 p.m.
UFC Belgrade Main Card
All 28 scheduled fighters successfully made weight on July 31. Medić and Rodriguez both weighed 171 pounds, the non-title welterweight limit.
Uroš Medić
Welterweight main event
Daniel Rodriguez
5 rounds
Jan Błachowicz
Light heavyweight
Navajo Stirling
3 rounds
Marcin Tybura
Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakić
3 rounds
Duško Todorović
Middleweight
Robert Valentin
3 rounds
Vlasto Čepo
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
3 rounds
Miloš Janičić
Lightweight
Noah Gugnon
3 rounds
Meet the Main Event
Power, accuracy and a 100% finishing rate meet reach, volume and deeper experience in long UFC contests.
Uroš Medić
“The Doctor” • Southpaw power striker
Uroš Medić enters the biggest fight of his career with a 13-3 professional record and a 7-3 UFC record. The 33-year-old Serbian is 6 feet 1 inch tall, has a 71-inch reach and fights from the southpaw stance.
All 13 of Medić’s professional victories have come by stoppage. Eleven were knockouts and two were submissions, giving him a 100% career finishing rate.
Daniel Rodriguez
“D-Rod” • High-volume southpaw boxer
Daniel Rodriguez arrives with a 20-5 professional record and a 10-4 UFC record. The 39-year-old American is also 6 feet 1 inch tall, but his 74-inch reach gives him a three-inch advantage over Medić. Rodriguez fights southpaw and is best known for his boxing volume, toughness and willingness to exchange.
Rodriguez has nine knockout victories and four submission wins. His other seven victories have reached the scorecards, demonstrating a more balanced finishing and decision record than Medić.
Accuracy and early danger
Medić lands an average of 5.59 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy. He absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute and owns a 56% significant-strike defense rate. His takedown numbers are limited, with 0.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and 55% takedown defense.
Those figures reflect his preferred style. Medić does not usually build his offense through prolonged wrestling sequences or cautious point fighting. He looks for openings, commits to damaging combinations and attempts to end the contest before his opponent can settle into a rhythm.
Volume and extended exchanges
Rodriguez lands 7.20 significant strikes per minute, which is substantially higher than Medić’s 5.59. His striking accuracy is 49%, while his defense stands at 57%. However, he also absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute.
His takedown average is only 0.51 per 15 minutes, but his 64% takedown defense is slightly better than Medić’s 55%. Rodriguez is not a wrestling-first fighter, though he can use clinches, defensive grappling and occasional takedowns to interrupt an opponent’s offense.
Finishing power and efficiency
Medić’s clearest advantage is his finishing power. His left hand is particularly dangerous, especially when opponents retreat in straight lines or remain in punching range after throwing.
He is also highly accurate for an active welterweight. His 60% significant-strike accuracy is considerably higher than Rodriguez’s 49%, suggesting that Medić wastes fewer attacks when he finds his range.
Medić can attack with straight punches, hooks and unconventional techniques. His confidence has grown during his current winning streak, and fighting in front of a Serbian audience could add energy to his already aggressive approach.
High-output boxing and experience
Rodriguez is comfortable in high-volume boxing exchanges. His jab, straight left hand and combination punching allow him to collect rounds even when he does not produce a finish.
His three-inch reach advantage may help him touch Medić from a safer distance. He also has considerably more experience in longer UFC fights. UFC Stats lists his average fight time at 11:50, compared with just 3:59 for Medić.
Rodriguez’s ability to keep working after difficult moments may become more important with every completed round.
Aggression creates risk
His aggression creates risk. Medić was knocked out by Punahele Soriano in only 31 seconds in January 2025, and Gilbert Urbina briefly dropped him before Medić recovered and scored his own knockout.
He has also never won a professional fight by decision. That finishing record is impressive, but it leaves an important unanswered question: how will he perform if Rodriguez pushes him into the fourth or fifth round?
Damage absorption and timing
Rodriguez absorbs a high number of significant strikes. A rate of 5.40 absorbed per minute is dangerous against an opponent with Medić’s accuracy and one-punch power.
He has also been stopped by strikes before, including his 2023 loss to Ian Machado Garry. At 39 and returning after an extended period without competition, his reaction speed and ability to handle Medić’s early pressure will be central questions.
Rodriguez has publicly discussed spending eight months in a Mexican prison before returning to competition. He says he continued training and viewed the UFC Belgrade opportunity as a new chapter in his career.
Fighter Comparison
The numbers show the central matchup: Medić’s efficiency and knockout rate against Rodriguez’s reach, volume and longer average fight time.
| Category | Uroš Medić | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 39 |
| Nationality | Serbian | American |
| Professional record | 13-3 | 20-5 |
| UFC record | 7-3 | 10-4 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Reach | 71" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Significant strikes landed/minute | 5.59 | 7.20 |
| Striking accuracy | 60% | 49% |
| Striking defense | 56% | 57% |
| Significant strikes absorbed/minute | 3.42 | 5.40 |
| Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Takedown defense | 55% | 64% |
| Average fight time | 3:59 | 11:50 |
| Knockout wins | 11 | 9 |
| Submission wins | 2 | 4 |
| Decision wins | 0 | 7 |
Fighting Style Breakdown
Both men fight southpaw, so mirrored stance details, hand position, lead-foot placement and jab timing become especially important.
Controlled pressure, then acceleration
Medić will probably begin by applying controlled pressure and searching for Rodriguez’s reactions. Because both fighters are southpaws, the usual open-stance battle will not apply. Each man will have to navigate a mirrored stance, making hand positioning, lead-foot placement and jab timing especially important.
Medić is likely to target Rodriguez with straight left hands and hooks as Rodriguez exits exchanges. If he notices Rodriguez becoming stationary, expect him to increase the pace quickly rather than slowly accumulate damage.
Disrupt rhythm and extend the fight
Rodriguez’s best strategy may be to deny Medić a clean, fast fight. He can use his longer reach, jab and volume to make Medić reset repeatedly.
Instead of exchanging one powerful attack for another, Rodriguez should aim to make the fight messy. Clinch pressure, body shots, short combinations and occasional takedown attempts could slow Medić’s explosiveness.
Who has the striking advantage?
The answer depends on how striking advantage is defined. Rodriguez has the edge in volume, landing 7.20 significant strikes per minute compared with Medić’s 5.59. Medić has the edge in accuracy and finishing danger, landing at 60% and owning 11 knockout victories.
Medić is more dangerous in a single exchange. Rodriguez may be more effective across several sustained rounds.
Who has the grappling advantage?
Neither man is a high-volume offensive wrestler. Rodriguez holds a small statistical advantage in takedown defense and has shown a wider range of winning methods, but this is still expected to be primarily a striking contest.
The value of grappling may come from control rather than submission attempts. Even 30 or 40 seconds of clinch pressure could help Rodriguez break Medić’s rhythm and force him to carry weight.
Who benefits from a longer fight?
Rodriguez appears to have the experience advantage if the contest reaches the later rounds. Medić’s fights have been much shorter, and he has never recorded a decision victory. Rodriguez has won seven professional decisions and recently completed three rounds against Kevin Holland.
However, experience does not guarantee superior five-round cardio. Both fighters must manage their energy differently than in a standard three-round contest.
Recent Form & Previous Performances
Medić enters with three consecutive first-round knockouts. Rodriguez arrives on a three-fight winning streak built through longer, more varied contests.
Uroš Medić’s last four fights
Geoff Neal
KO • Round 1 • 1:19
Medić scored the biggest victory of his career by knocking out Geoff Neal with a left hand in February 2026. The finish extended his knockout streak to three and established him as a ranked welterweight threat.
Muslim Salikhov
TKO • Round 1 • 1:03
Medić dropped Salikhov and finished the fight with follow-up strikes in November 2025. It was another example of how quickly he can punish a positioning mistake.
Gilbert Urbina
KO • Round 1 • 1:03
Urbina hurt Medić early, but the Serbian recovered immediately and landed a clean left hand that changed the fight. The performance displayed both Medić’s danger and the defensive risks created by his aggressive style.
Punahele Soriano
KO loss • Round 1 • 0:31
Soriano overwhelmed Medić with a fast combination. That defeat remains important because Rodriguez is also capable of throwing long boxing combinations when an opponent stays in the pocket.
Daniel Rodriguez’s last five fights
Kevin Holland
Unanimous decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez defeated Holland by three scores of 29-28 at UFC 318. The fight demonstrated his ability to remain effective through chaotic exchanges and complete all three rounds.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
TKO • Round 3 • 1:12
Rodriguez stopped Ponzinibbio with punches in the final round, showing that his finishing threat does not disappear after the opening minutes.
Alex Morono
Decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez returned to the win column against Morono in October 2024, beginning his present three-fight streak.
Kelvin Gastelum
Unanimous decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez competed at middleweight against Gastelum and completed three rounds but lost on the scorecards.
Ian Machado Garry
TKO loss • Stoppage
Garry used range and a head kick to hurt Rodriguez before finishing with punches. The loss showed that Rodriguez can be vulnerable against opponents who control distance and introduce varied attacks.
Five Key Factors That Could Decide the Fight
The fight may turn on survival, distance, defense, physical pressure and how both men respond if the main event reaches unfamiliar late-round territory.
Rodriguez’s ability to survive the opening round
Medić’s last three victories all ended in the first round. Rodriguez cannot afford a slow start or extended periods with his back near the fence.
The first five minutes may be less about winning the round and more about preventing Medić from creating a decisive exchange.
Distance management
Rodriguez owns a three-inch reach advantage. He must use it through disciplined jabs and straight punches rather than remaining close enough for Medić’s hooks.
Medić needs to move beyond the end of Rodriguez’s jab without rushing forward recklessly. Small adjustments could determine whether the exchanges favor volume or power.
Defensive responsibility
Both fighters can be hit. Medić has been knocked out and was dropped during his current streak, while Rodriguez absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute.
The winner may be the fighter who exits exchanges without remaining available for the final counter.
Body work and clinch fighting
Rodriguez can reduce Medić’s explosiveness by attacking the body and forcing him to work in the clinch. Those tactics may be especially valuable in a five-round fight.
Medić should avoid wasting energy by forcing a finish that is not available. Patience could be as important as power.
The unknown championship rounds
Medić has an average fight time of under four minutes and has never won by decision. Rodriguez has more decision experience, but he is also entering his first UFC five-round main event at 39.
If the fight reaches the fourth round, energy management, corner advice and tactical discipline could become more important than raw statistics.
Possible Fight Scenarios
Five realistic routes illustrate how the balance between early power and veteran pressure could shape the result.
Medić wins by early knockout
Medić pressures Rodriguez, draws out the jab and counters with a straight left or hook. Rodriguez’s high strike-absorption rate makes this a realistic outcome.
Rodriguez survives and takes control
Rodriguez remains disciplined through the first round, uses his jab and begins increasing his volume as Medić slows. He could then win rounds through cleaner combinations and cage control.
Rodriguez uses clinching and grappling
Rodriguez may not need repeated takedowns. By holding Medić against the fence, forcing resets and mixing in occasional level changes, he could prevent Medić from creating a smooth striking rhythm.
Medić wins a more patient fight
Medić does not have to attack at full speed immediately. He could use feints and body attacks to create a later opening, producing a knockout in the second or third round rather than the first.
A competitive decision
If Rodriguez handles the early danger and Medić maintains his energy, the fight could become a technical southpaw boxing match. Rodriguez’s volume would compete against Medić’s harder, more accurate individual strikes.
Medić vs. Rodriguez Prediction
This is an analytical opinion, not a guaranteed outcome.
Uroš Medić
Why Medić is the pick
Medić’s combination of accuracy, speed and finishing power gives him the more immediate path to victory. Rodriguez absorbs too many clean strikes for a matchup against an opponent who has stopped 11 professional opponents by knockout.
The first round may be more competitive than many expect. Rodriguez has the reach, experience and volume to make Medić think before entering range. However, as the exchanges develop, Medić’s left hand should begin finding openings around Rodriguez’s jab.
The prediction is for Medić to hurt Rodriguez during an exchange in the second round and finish with follow-up strikes.
Strongest argument for Rodriguez
Rodriguez has fought longer, more complicated contests and lands substantially more strikes per minute. If he survives Medić’s early power, he can turn the fight into a test of patience and cardio that Medić has never faced professionally.
How to Watch Legally
Regional services differ, so viewers outside listed markets should consult the UFC’s official event page or an authorized local sports broadcaster.
Scheduled to stream on Paramount+. Preliminary card begins at 10:00 a.m. ET and the main card at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Coverage is scheduled through TNT Sports and HBO Max. Prelims are listed at 3:00 p.m. and the main card at 6:00 p.m.
Availability varies by country. Use the UFC’s official event listing or your authorized local sports broadcaster.
Power vs. Volume in Belgrade
Medić vs. Rodriguez is a classic power-versus-volume matchup with a larger storyline behind it. Medić is competing at home during the UFC’s first event in Serbia and enters with three consecutive first-round knockouts. Rodriguez brings a longer reach, higher striking volume and more experience in extended fights.
Medić has the more dangerous finishing weapons, but Rodriguez has the tools to make this a difficult and potentially lengthy main event. The pick is Uroš Medić by second-round TKO, although Rodriguez becomes increasingly dangerous to that prediction with every round he survives.
Medić vs.
Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night heads to Belgrade for a historic welterweight main event between Serbian knockout artist Uroš “The Doctor” Medić and experienced American contender Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez.
The matchup brings together two ranked fighters on three-fight winning streaks, but they have built their momentum in very different ways. Medić has finished Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov and Geoff Neal inside the opening round. Rodriguez has relied on experience, pressure and sustained striking to defeat Alex Morono, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Kevin Holland.
For Medić, this is an opportunity to produce a career-defining performance in his home country. For Rodriguez, it is a chance to spoil the celebration and prove that his high-output style can neutralize one of the division’s most dangerous early finishers.
Uroš Medić
13–3 • Serbia
Daniel Rodriguez
20–5 • USA
UFC Fight Night Event Information
The official UFC event page lists the preliminary card for 7:00 a.m. PT and the main card for 10:00 a.m. PT. The event takes place at Belgrade Arena and marks the UFC’s first visit to Serbia.
Time conversions
3:00 p.m.Main card
6:00 p.m.
4:00 p.m.Main card
7:00 p.m.
7:00 p.m.Main card
10:00 p.m.
UFC Belgrade Main Card
All 28 scheduled fighters successfully made weight on July 31. Medić and Rodriguez both weighed 171 pounds, the non-title welterweight limit.
Uroš Medić
Welterweight main event
Daniel Rodriguez
5 rounds
Jan Błachowicz
Light heavyweight
Navajo Stirling
3 rounds
Marcin Tybura
Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakić
3 rounds
Duško Todorović
Middleweight
Robert Valentin
3 rounds
Vlasto Čepo
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
3 rounds
Miloš Janičić
Lightweight
Noah Gugnon
3 rounds
Meet the Main Event
Power, accuracy and a 100% finishing rate meet reach, volume and deeper experience in long UFC contests.
Uroš Medić
“The Doctor” • Southpaw power striker
Uroš Medić enters the biggest fight of his career with a 13-3 professional record and a 7-3 UFC record. The 33-year-old Serbian is 6 feet 1 inch tall, has a 71-inch reach and fights from the southpaw stance.
All 13 of Medić’s professional victories have come by stoppage. Eleven were knockouts and two were submissions, giving him a 100% career finishing rate.
Daniel Rodriguez
“D-Rod” • High-volume southpaw boxer
Daniel Rodriguez arrives with a 20-5 professional record and a 10-4 UFC record. The 39-year-old American is also 6 feet 1 inch tall, but his 74-inch reach gives him a three-inch advantage over Medić. Rodriguez fights southpaw and is best known for his boxing volume, toughness and willingness to exchange.
Rodriguez has nine knockout victories and four submission wins. His other seven victories have reached the scorecards, demonstrating a more balanced finishing and decision record than Medić.
Accuracy and early danger
Medić lands an average of 5.59 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy. He absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute and owns a 56% significant-strike defense rate. His takedown numbers are limited, with 0.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and 55% takedown defense.
Those figures reflect his preferred style. Medić does not usually build his offense through prolonged wrestling sequences or cautious point fighting. He looks for openings, commits to damaging combinations and attempts to end the contest before his opponent can settle into a rhythm.
Volume and extended exchanges
Rodriguez lands 7.20 significant strikes per minute, which is substantially higher than Medić’s 5.59. His striking accuracy is 49%, while his defense stands at 57%. However, he also absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute.
His takedown average is only 0.51 per 15 minutes, but his 64% takedown defense is slightly better than Medić’s 55%. Rodriguez is not a wrestling-first fighter, though he can use clinches, defensive grappling and occasional takedowns to interrupt an opponent’s offense.
Finishing power and efficiency
Medić’s clearest advantage is his finishing power. His left hand is particularly dangerous, especially when opponents retreat in straight lines or remain in punching range after throwing.
He is also highly accurate for an active welterweight. His 60% significant-strike accuracy is considerably higher than Rodriguez’s 49%, suggesting that Medić wastes fewer attacks when he finds his range.
Medić can attack with straight punches, hooks and unconventional techniques. His confidence has grown during his current winning streak, and fighting in front of a Serbian audience could add energy to his already aggressive approach.
High-output boxing and experience
Rodriguez is comfortable in high-volume boxing exchanges. His jab, straight left hand and combination punching allow him to collect rounds even when he does not produce a finish.
His three-inch reach advantage may help him touch Medić from a safer distance. He also has considerably more experience in longer UFC fights. UFC Stats lists his average fight time at 11:50, compared with just 3:59 for Medić.
Rodriguez’s ability to keep working after difficult moments may become more important with every completed round.
Aggression creates risk
His aggression creates risk. Medić was knocked out by Punahele Soriano in only 31 seconds in January 2025, and Gilbert Urbina briefly dropped him before Medić recovered and scored his own knockout.
He has also never won a professional fight by decision. That finishing record is impressive, but it leaves an important unanswered question: how will he perform if Rodriguez pushes him into the fourth or fifth round?
Damage absorption and timing
Rodriguez absorbs a high number of significant strikes. A rate of 5.40 absorbed per minute is dangerous against an opponent with Medić’s accuracy and one-punch power.
He has also been stopped by strikes before, including his 2023 loss to Ian Machado Garry. At 39 and returning after an extended period without competition, his reaction speed and ability to handle Medić’s early pressure will be central questions.
Rodriguez has publicly discussed spending eight months in a Mexican prison before returning to competition. He says he continued training and viewed the UFC Belgrade opportunity as a new chapter in his career.
Fighter Comparison
The numbers show the central matchup: Medić’s efficiency and knockout rate against Rodriguez’s reach, volume and longer average fight time.
| Category | Uroš Medić | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 39 |
| Nationality | Serbian | American |
| Professional record | 13-3 | 20-5 |
| UFC record | 7-3 | 10-4 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Reach | 71" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Significant strikes landed/minute | 5.59 | 7.20 |
| Striking accuracy | 60% | 49% |
| Striking defense | 56% | 57% |
| Significant strikes absorbed/minute | 3.42 | 5.40 |
| Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Takedown defense | 55% | 64% |
| Average fight time | 3:59 | 11:50 |
| Knockout wins | 11 | 9 |
| Submission wins | 2 | 4 |
| Decision wins | 0 | 7 |
Fighting Style Breakdown
Both men fight southpaw, so mirrored stance details, hand position, lead-foot placement and jab timing become especially important.
Controlled pressure, then acceleration
Medić will probably begin by applying controlled pressure and searching for Rodriguez’s reactions. Because both fighters are southpaws, the usual open-stance battle will not apply. Each man will have to navigate a mirrored stance, making hand positioning, lead-foot placement and jab timing especially important.
Medić is likely to target Rodriguez with straight left hands and hooks as Rodriguez exits exchanges. If he notices Rodriguez becoming stationary, expect him to increase the pace quickly rather than slowly accumulate damage.
Disrupt rhythm and extend the fight
Rodriguez’s best strategy may be to deny Medić a clean, fast fight. He can use his longer reach, jab and volume to make Medić reset repeatedly.
Instead of exchanging one powerful attack for another, Rodriguez should aim to make the fight messy. Clinch pressure, body shots, short combinations and occasional takedown attempts could slow Medić’s explosiveness.
Who has the striking advantage?
The answer depends on how striking advantage is defined. Rodriguez has the edge in volume, landing 7.20 significant strikes per minute compared with Medić’s 5.59. Medić has the edge in accuracy and finishing danger, landing at 60% and owning 11 knockout victories.
Medić is more dangerous in a single exchange. Rodriguez may be more effective across several sustained rounds.
Who has the grappling advantage?
Neither man is a high-volume offensive wrestler. Rodriguez holds a small statistical advantage in takedown defense and has shown a wider range of winning methods, but this is still expected to be primarily a striking contest.
The value of grappling may come from control rather than submission attempts. Even 30 or 40 seconds of clinch pressure could help Rodriguez break Medić’s rhythm and force him to carry weight.
Who benefits from a longer fight?
Rodriguez appears to have the experience advantage if the contest reaches the later rounds. Medić’s fights have been much shorter, and he has never recorded a decision victory. Rodriguez has won seven professional decisions and recently completed three rounds against Kevin Holland.
However, experience does not guarantee superior five-round cardio. Both fighters must manage their energy differently than in a standard three-round contest.
Recent Form & Previous Performances
Medić enters with three consecutive first-round knockouts. Rodriguez arrives on a three-fight winning streak built through longer, more varied contests.
Uroš Medić’s last four fights
Geoff Neal
KO • Round 1 • 1:19
Medić scored the biggest victory of his career by knocking out Geoff Neal with a left hand in February 2026. The finish extended his knockout streak to three and established him as a ranked welterweight threat.
Muslim Salikhov
TKO • Round 1 • 1:03
Medić dropped Salikhov and finished the fight with follow-up strikes in November 2025. It was another example of how quickly he can punish a positioning mistake.
Gilbert Urbina
KO • Round 1 • 1:03
Urbina hurt Medić early, but the Serbian recovered immediately and landed a clean left hand that changed the fight. The performance displayed both Medić’s danger and the defensive risks created by his aggressive style.
Punahele Soriano
KO loss • Round 1 • 0:31
Soriano overwhelmed Medić with a fast combination. That defeat remains important because Rodriguez is also capable of throwing long boxing combinations when an opponent stays in the pocket.
Daniel Rodriguez’s last five fights
Kevin Holland
Unanimous decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez defeated Holland by three scores of 29-28 at UFC 318. The fight demonstrated his ability to remain effective through chaotic exchanges and complete all three rounds.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
TKO • Round 3 • 1:12
Rodriguez stopped Ponzinibbio with punches in the final round, showing that his finishing threat does not disappear after the opening minutes.
Alex Morono
Decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez returned to the win column against Morono in October 2024, beginning his present three-fight streak.
Kelvin Gastelum
Unanimous decision • 3 rounds
Rodriguez competed at middleweight against Gastelum and completed three rounds but lost on the scorecards.
Ian Machado Garry
TKO loss • Stoppage
Garry used range and a head kick to hurt Rodriguez before finishing with punches. The loss showed that Rodriguez can be vulnerable against opponents who control distance and introduce varied attacks.
Five Key Factors That Could Decide the Fight
The fight may turn on survival, distance, defense, physical pressure and how both men respond if the main event reaches unfamiliar late-round territory.
Rodriguez’s ability to survive the opening round
Medić’s last three victories all ended in the first round. Rodriguez cannot afford a slow start or extended periods with his back near the fence.
The first five minutes may be less about winning the round and more about preventing Medić from creating a decisive exchange.
Distance management
Rodriguez owns a three-inch reach advantage. He must use it through disciplined jabs and straight punches rather than remaining close enough for Medić’s hooks.
Medić needs to move beyond the end of Rodriguez’s jab without rushing forward recklessly. Small adjustments could determine whether the exchanges favor volume or power.
Defensive responsibility
Both fighters can be hit. Medić has been knocked out and was dropped during his current streak, while Rodriguez absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute.
The winner may be the fighter who exits exchanges without remaining available for the final counter.
Body work and clinch fighting
Rodriguez can reduce Medić’s explosiveness by attacking the body and forcing him to work in the clinch. Those tactics may be especially valuable in a five-round fight.
Medić should avoid wasting energy by forcing a finish that is not available. Patience could be as important as power.
The unknown championship rounds
Medić has an average fight time of under four minutes and has never won by decision. Rodriguez has more decision experience, but he is also entering his first UFC five-round main event at 39.
If the fight reaches the fourth round, energy management, corner advice and tactical discipline could become more important than raw statistics.
Possible Fight Scenarios
Five realistic routes illustrate how the balance between early power and veteran pressure could shape the result.
Medić wins by early knockout
Medić pressures Rodriguez, draws out the jab and counters with a straight left or hook. Rodriguez’s high strike-absorption rate makes this a realistic outcome.
Rodriguez survives and takes control
Rodriguez remains disciplined through the first round, uses his jab and begins increasing his volume as Medić slows. He could then win rounds through cleaner combinations and cage control.
Rodriguez uses clinching and grappling
Rodriguez may not need repeated takedowns. By holding Medić against the fence, forcing resets and mixing in occasional level changes, he could prevent Medić from creating a smooth striking rhythm.
Medić wins a more patient fight
Medić does not have to attack at full speed immediately. He could use feints and body attacks to create a later opening, producing a knockout in the second or third round rather than the first.
A competitive decision
If Rodriguez handles the early danger and Medić maintains his energy, the fight could become a technical southpaw boxing match. Rodriguez’s volume would compete against Medić’s harder, more accurate individual strikes.
Medić vs. Rodriguez Prediction
This is an analytical opinion, not a guaranteed outcome.
Uroš Medić
Why Medić is the pick
Medić’s combination of accuracy, speed and finishing power gives him the more immediate path to victory. Rodriguez absorbs too many clean strikes for a matchup against an opponent who has stopped 11 professional opponents by knockout.
The first round may be more competitive than many expect. Rodriguez has the reach, experience and volume to make Medić think before entering range. However, as the exchanges develop, Medić’s left hand should begin finding openings around Rodriguez’s jab.
The prediction is for Medić to hurt Rodriguez during an exchange in the second round and finish with follow-up strikes.
Strongest argument for Rodriguez
Rodriguez has fought longer, more complicated contests and lands substantially more strikes per minute. If he survives Medić’s early power, he can turn the fight into a test of patience and cardio that Medić has never faced professionally.
How to Watch Legally
Regional services differ, so viewers outside listed markets should consult the UFC’s official event page or an authorized local sports broadcaster.
Scheduled to stream on Paramount+. Preliminary card begins at 10:00 a.m. ET and the main card at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Coverage is scheduled through TNT Sports and HBO Max. Prelims are listed at 3:00 p.m. and the main card at 6:00 p.m.
Availability varies by country. Use the UFC’s official event listing or your authorized local sports broadcaster.
Power vs. Volume in Belgrade
Medić vs. Rodriguez is a classic power-versus-volume matchup with a larger storyline behind it. Medić is competing at home during the UFC’s first event in Serbia and enters with three consecutive first-round knockouts. Rodriguez brings a longer reach, higher striking volume and more experience in extended fights.
Medić has the more dangerous finishing weapons, but Rodriguez has the tools to make this a difficult and potentially lengthy main event. The pick is Uroš Medić by second-round TKO, although Rodriguez becomes increasingly dangerous to that prediction with every round he survives.
Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Compare both welterweights through their physical measurements, UFC statistics, professional records, finishing ability and predicted paths to victory.
Uroš Medić
Southpaw Power Striker
Daniel Rodriguez
High-Volume Southpaw Boxer
Fighter Comparison Table
| Category | Uroš Medić | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 39 |
| Nationality | Serbian | American |
| Professional record | 13–3 | 20–5 |
| UFC record | 7–3 | 10–4 |
| Height | 6’1″ | 6’1″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 74″ Advantage |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Significant strikes landed/minute | 5.59 | 7.20 Higher |
| Striking accuracy | 60% Higher | 49% |
| Striking defense | 56% | 57% |
| Significant strikes absorbed/minute | 3.42 Lower | 5.40 |
| Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 50% |
| Takedown defense | 55% | 64% Higher |
| Submissions per 15 minutes | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Average fight time | 3:59 | 11:50 |
| Knockout wins | 11 — 84.6% Higher rate | 9 — 45% |
| Submission wins | 2 — 15.4% | 4 — 20% |
| Decision wins | 0 — 0% | 7 — 35% |
Statistics and physical measurements are based on UFC Stats and official UFC fighter information available before the event.
Prediction Summary
Uroš Medić
By TKO • Round 2
Medić’s accuracy and early knockout power give him the clearest route to victory.
Control the early striking exchanges
Use speed, accuracy and counter power before Rodriguez can establish his high-volume boxing rhythm.
Extend the fight and raise the pace
Absorb the early pressure, force longer exchanges and use experience to test Medić’s five-round conditioning.
Frequently Asked Questions
01 When is Medić vs. Rodriguez?
The fight takes place on Saturday, August 1, 2026.
02 Where will the fight take place?
It will be held at Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia.
03 What weight class is Medić vs. Rodriguez?
It is a five-round welterweight main event. Both fighters weighed 171 pounds at the official weigh-in.
04 What are their professional records?
Medić enters at 13–3, while Rodriguez enters at 20–5.
05 Who lands more significant strikes?
Rodriguez lands more significant strikes per minute at 7.20, compared with Medić’s 5.59.
06 Who is the more accurate striker?
Medić has the better recorded striking accuracy at 60%, compared with 49% for Rodriguez.
07 Who has the stronger grappling statistics?
Rodriguez holds the better takedown-defense rate at 64%, but neither fighter produces a high number of offensive takedowns.
08 Is Medić vs. Rodriguez the main event?
Yes. It headlines the UFC’s first Fight Night event in Serbia.
09 How can fans watch the event legally?
The event is scheduled for Paramount+ in the United States. UK and Ireland coverage is listed through TNT Sports and HBO Max. Availability elsewhere varies by region.
10 Who is predicted to win?
The prediction in this analysis is Uroš Medić by second-round TKO, with moderate confidence.
11 Could the fight end by knockout?
Yes. Medić has 11 knockout victories, while Rodriguez has nine. Medić’s last three wins have all been first-round knockouts.